lil-tail v2 · mint-arb

$1 mint → sell at $0.02 → redeem winner

Total wallet · live on-chain

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Trading (USDC.e)

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Gas (POL)

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Combined P&L

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v1 + v2 vs $20 cap

Total P&L

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Cycles run

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profitable / loss / open

Avg per cycle

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target $0.02-$0.04

Cycles / hr

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cap deployed: —

Open cycles

— live · 4-stage progress

Sell-fill rate

fraction of $0.02 limit sells that fill before expiry

— % filled target ≥ 50%

0% 50% 100%

Both filled

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One filled

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Neither

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Cycle

Pay $1.00 to mint a complete set, sell both sides at $0.02, redeem winner at $1.00 at expiry. Net = $1.00 + sells - $1.00 = sells.

Edge

Gamblers buy the obviously-losing side at $0.02 because $0.02 → $1.00 looks like a 50× shot. Each fill is pure premium — no directional view required.

Targets

At $2K capital running ~200 cycles/day at avg $0.02 fills = $40-$80/day. Dad funds $2K once 100 cycles prove the loop.

Loss case

Only loses money if a side sells above $0.02 average and the other side never fills — rare. Hard floor: bot stops cycling if 30 consecutive cycles return $0.00.

Per-cycle P&L breakdown

last 30 cycles · stacked: mint cost / sells / redemption / net

Capital cycling

$20 paper · $2K target after dad funds

current cap — —

$0 cur — target $2,000

Deployed now

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Open cycles

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Cycles / hr

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$/hr at $2K

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Hour-of-day cycles

UTC · cycles closed per hour since launch

fewer more

Settled cycles

last 30 · newest first

Time (UTC)	Market	Mint	Sells	Redeem	Net

Model wallet

public ledger we reverse-engineered v2 from

handle @lil222222122

wallet 0xeaca…0729

cycles ~200/day · BTC-only on May 2 audit

strategy SPLIT $1 → mint UP+DOWN · sell both at 2¢ · redeem winner at $1