Polymarket KL Brain · Volia Operator Dashboard

Live Telemetry — placeholders

KL Pass-Rate

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awaiting first event

Fused Prob (latest)

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awaiting first event

Drift Alert

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awaiting first event

Events (lifetime)

since publisher start

KL gate · last 50 events (left = oldest, right = newest)

What this bot is supposed to do

Subscribe to directional_v1's per-trade signal and the live Polymarket order book; compute a fused probability p_fused from quant signals and a market mid p_market.
Compute KL divergence D_KL(p_fused || p_market) and gate the trade only if D_KL > threshold AND directional confidence agrees.
Emit one structured log line per decision — KL_GATE asset=BTC verdict=PASS|BLOCK fused=0.62 market=0.51 dkl=0.024 — that the existing publisher already knows how to parse (see scripts/update_polymarket_dash.py, lines that regex out KL_GATE / KL_HIT_RATE).
Run as sibling daemon next to directional_v1 on the London VPS so it sees the same log stream and same wallet context.
Publish state via the same Supabase slot bot-state/polymarket_kl.json — this dashboard is already wired to it. No frontend change required when it ships.

Reference history (NOT this bot)

Disclaimer. The numbers below are directional_v1's Wilson per-asset stats — the bot the KL Brain is meant to filter. They are shown only to motivate the KL gate (WR is well below break-even, so un-gated execution loses money). They are not the KL Brain's record. The KL Brain has zero events.

Asset

Wilson WR (95%)

Settled PnL

BTC

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ETH

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SOL

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What's missing

Bot binary. No code under ~/.openclaw/workspace named kl_brain / polymarket_kl.
Log emitter. directional_v1's source has no KL_GATE tracing macro.
Publisher slot. update_polymarket_dash.py already regex-parses KL_GATE lines and KL_HIT_RATE summaries — wired and waiting.
Storage slot. Supabase bot-state/polymarket_kl.json exists and is upserted every 60 s by com.neo.bot-dash-populator.
Dashboard. This page (auto-fills on first event).
Threshold calibration. Pick KL cutoff that historically would have blocked the BTC/ETH/SOL losses without killing the wins. Backfill on vault/research/decision-log/summary.json.
Live deploy. Spawn the daemon next to directional_v1 on the London VPS.

Wiring

State URL

supabase / bot-state / polymarket_kl.json

Publisher

com.neo.bot-dash-populator (60 s)

Source script

scripts/update_polymarket_dash.py

Updated (Supabase)

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Drift alert

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Publisher note

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